Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Wes Ferrell: Pre-Integration Era Veterans Committee Hall of Fame Candidate



Wes Ferrell is one of ten candidates eligible for the Pre-Integration Era Hall of Fame vote that will take place during December's Winter Meetings in Nashville.  The Pre-Integration Era Committee votes on candidates who made their biggest contributions to the game between 1871 and 1946.  The Committee is a 16-member panel made up of retired Hall of Famers, major league executives, and veteran media members.  Each member of the panel can vote for up to four of the ten candidates.  A candidate must carry 75% of the vote to be elected.

Wes Ferrell (1908-1976) 193-128 .601W/L% 4.04ERA 323GS 2,623.0IP 985K
Career (’27-’41) 57.2WAR 35.8WAA 116ERA+

Wes Ferrell burst onto the scene as a 21-year old rookie for the 1929 Cleveland Indians, winning 21 games and finishing behind only George Earnshaw for the American League lead in wins.  Ferrell's 3.60 ERA that year may not look all that strong but it was good enough for seventh in the AL as pitchers during this time had the misfortune of plying their trade during one of the most hitter-friendly eras in baseball history.  Moreover, the hitters' advantage over their pitching counterparts was even more significant in the offense-heavy AL where the league average ERA consistently stayed well north of 4.00.  Ferrell followed up his excellent rookie season with an even more impressive sophomore campaign, going 25-13 with a 3.31 ERA, this time finishing runner-up to Lefty Grove in both AL wins and ERA.  Ferrell won 22 games in 1931, including an April 29 no-hitter against the St. Louis Browns.  The young right-hander once again finished runner-up to Grove in AL wins, marking the third year in a row he was second in that category.  As good as his '31 season was on the mound, Ferrell may have been even more impressive at the plate, hitting .319 with 9 home runs and 30 RBI in just 128 plate appearances.  In addition, Ferrell's 152 OPS+ was higher than any of the regular hitters on the team and the 9 home runs he hit set a single season record for pitchers that still stands today.  Ferrell even helped his cause in his no-hit win, drilling a home run, a double, and driving in 4 runs.  Cleveland was so impressed with Ferrell's hitting that he was often called upon to pinch hit between starts.

Wes Ferrell 1933 Goudey
Ferrell added 23 more wins to his ledger in 1932, giving the 24-year old an amazing 21 or more wins in each of his first four full seasons.  Moreover, despite pitching his home games at hitter-friendly League Park, Ferrell consistently finished among the league leaders in ERA.  Yet, despite all his success, things were falling apart for Ferrell in Cleveland.  Competitive but also combative, Ferrell sometimes let his emotions get the best of him when his teammates made errors.  Though he averaged nearly 300 innings pitched per year, arm troubles bothered Ferrell as early as the Spring of 1930.  Ferrell's arm woes made him reluctant to throw his fastball, much to the chagrin of his manager Roger Peckinpaugh and the Cleveland front office.  Ferrell's often contentious relationship with Peckinpaugh smoldered over when the team suspended the righty ten days without pay after he refused to hand the ball over to his manager during a poor outing late in the '32 season.  A change of managers from Peckinpaugh to legendary Hall of Fame hurler Walter Johnson in June of the following year relieved some of the tension surrounding Ferrell.  However, despite the managerial change, Ferrell had his first off-year winning just 11 games, while losing 12, with a 4.21 ERA.  In fact, Ferrell struggled so mightily in the second half of the season--going 3-5 with a 6.13 ERA--that the team took him out of the rotation and played him regularly in left field for the final three weeks of the season.  Ferrell hit well but struggled to track down balls hit to left and his lack of range in the field drew lots of criticism.

Ferrell's trial run in left was considered a failure and many felt his best pitching days were behind him so during the offseason, the Cleveland front office tried to trade him but was unable to deal the fiery right-hander.  When Cleveland decided to cut his salary, Ferrell returned home to North Carolina and opted to sit out the start of the season.  Finally on May 25, Cleveland officially parted ways with their temperamental superstar, trading him to the Boston Red Sox where he joined brother Rick to form a pitcher-catcher brother battery.  Despite missing nearly two full months due to the contract holdout, Ferrell bounced back strong in his first season in Beantown going 14-5 with a 3.63 ERA.  Moving from Cleveland's League Park to Boston's Fenway Park gave Ferrell little relief as in Boston like Cleveland he pitched his home games at a notorious hitter's park.  Despite the unfriendly confines, Ferrell continued to stay among the league leaders in ERA.  The following year, Ferrell had one of his finest campaigns, leading the AL with 25 wins despite pitching on a team that barely finished above .500.  Ferrell also paced the league with 322.1 innings pitched and 31 complete games.  In addition, Ferrell hit .347 with 7 home runs and 32 RBI in just 179 plate appearances.  Moreover, Ferrell's .347 batting average, .427 OBP, and 141 OPS+ were easily higher than all of Boston's regular hitters.  Ferrell's strong performance on the mound and with the bat netted him a league high 10.4 WAR and earned him a runner-up finish behind Hank Greenberg in the 1935 AL MVP vote.

Ferrell followed up his excellent '35 season with a 20-15 campaign, the sixth time in his career he reached the 20-win mark.  Once again, Ferrell led the AL with 301 innings pitched and 28 complete games.  Ferrell's 7.7 WAR was third highest in the league and his 4.19 ERA, which was eighth best in the league, was deceptively strong since the league average ERA was 5.04--the highest in AL history.  Just as in Cleveland, turmoil surrounded Ferrell in Boston which led to difficulties with teammates as well as managers Bucky Harris and Joe Cronin.  In fact in one memorable incident, Ferrell slugged himself in the jaw and smashed his head into a concrete wall after being removed from the game during an ineffective start.

The following season Ferrell got off to a horrendous start going 3-6 with an alarming 7.61 ERA and on June 11 was traded, along with brother Rick to the Washington Senators.  Ferrell rebounded in Washington, completing an amazing 21 of 24 starts with a 3.94 ERA.  Still, his combined stat line in Boston and Washington for the '37 season was an unimpressive 14-19 record with a subpar 4.90 ERA--though he did lead the AL with 281 innings pitched and 26 complete games, the third year in a row the workhorse righty led in those categories.  The 14 wins gave the 29-year old Ferrell an amazing 175 wins before his thirtieth birthday.  Ferrell's stay in Washington was short-lived as he was released the following August.  At the time of his release, Ferrell led the team with 13 wins but sported a 5.92 ERA.  Ferrell's exit from the Capital City was likely hastened by critical comments he made about Senators owner Clark Griffith.  Ferrell was quickly signed by the New York Yankees, who would defeat the Chicago Cubs in the World Series that year.  Unfortunately for Ferrell, he was ineffective for the Bombers, going 2-2 with an 8.10 ERA and did not appear in the World Series.  Ferrell's combined record had rebounded to 15-10 in 1938 but his ERA ballooned to 6.28.  All the wear and tear from being a workhouse starter appeared to be taking its toll on Ferrell, who at season's end got elbow surgery after finishing '38 with career lows in both complete games and innings pitched.

Unfortunately, the elbow surgery did not breathe new life into Ferrell's arm and the righty was released by the Yankees the following May after just three starts.  Ferrell signed with the Brooklyn Dodgers for 1940 but once again was released in May.  The pattern repeated itself again in 1941 when Ferrell signed with the Boston Braves, only to be given his walking papers in May.  Though he was just 33-years old, Ferrell's release from Boston spelled an end to the passionate right-hander's major league career.  The North Carolina native spent the rest of the decade playing for Southeastern-based minor league teams.  Ferrell had been viewed as a defensive liability in his brief trial run as a Cleveland left fielder at the end of the 1933 season but in the minors was able to enjoy taking the field as an everyday position player without the pressures and scrutinies of a major league front office, beat writers, and fans.  In his stops to different minor league towns, Ferrell occasionally took the mound and usually served as player-manager.

Wes Ferrell 1934-36 Diamond Stars
Ferrell retired with a 193-128 record and .601 win/loss percentage--an even more impressive total considering he pitched for mediocre teams most of his career.  Ferrell had six 20-win seasons, including four in a row from 1929 to 1932.  Ferrell also finished in the top-5 in WAR for pitchers six times, four of which were runner-up finishes to the dominant Lefty Grove.  In addition, Ferrell was a workhorse, leading the AL in complete games four times and innings pitched three times.  Ferrell retired with a seemingly lackluster 4.04 career ERA, but that can largely be attributed to the offense-dominated era he pitched in.  In fact, Ferrell regularly placed among the top-10 in traditional ERA and adjusted ERA+, despite pitching most of his home games at League Park and Fenway Park.  And, when Ferrell's 4.04 career ERA is adjusted based on the league, home ballparks, and the time period he pitched in, it becomes a much more respectable 116 ERA+.

In addition to being one of the finest pitchers of his generation, Ferrell is regarded by many to be the greatest hitting pitcher of all-time.  In just 1,345 career plate appearances, Ferrell hit 38 home runs and drove in 208 runs with a .280 career batting average, .351 OBP, and 100 OPS+.  Moreover, Ferrell holds the major league record for career home runs by a pitcher with 37 of his 38 long balls coming in games in which he took the mound, as well as the single season record for a pitcher with 9 in 1931.  Ferrell's teams valued his bat so much that on days when he wasn't pitching, he was often called upon as a pinch hitter.  Interestingly enough, Ferrell actually finished his career with more home runs, a higher batting average, and OPS+ than his brother Rick, who was elected to the Hall of Fame by the Veterans Committee in 1984.

Lefty Grove, Red Ruffing, Ted Lyons, and Lefty Gomez were contemporaries of Ferrell's, who also pitched in the AL during the high-scoring 1930's, but unlike Ferrell each of them were eventually voted into the Hall of Fame.  Of those Hall of Fame hurlers, only Grove can match Ferrell's career peak of six 20-win seasons over an eight year period, which for Ferrell, also included a pair of 25-win seasons in 1930 and 1935.  Despite his six 20-win seasons and heralded skill with the bat, Ferrell never drew more than 3.6% of the vote in BBWAA elections.  Ferrell could be difficult as well as volatile at times--something that may have hurt him in Hall of Fame voting.  Undoubtedly, having a career ERA north of 4.00 also cost Ferrell more than his fair share of Hall of Fame votes.  Ferrell's high career ERA was a by-product of its time as Hall of Fame contemporaries Lyons (3.67) and Ruffing (3.80) have the dubious honor of having the highest ERAs of any pitchers in Cooperstown.  Ferrell's career lacked the longevity of Grove, Lyons, and Ruffing, who each won 260 or more games.  However, in his abbreviated career, Ferrell was able to add a lot of value with the bat and, when compared sabermetrically to his Hall of Fame contemporaries, the combination of his contributions on the mound and in the batter's box bridges the gap to his enshrined peers.





Ferrell compared to HOF contemporary pitchers



From
To
W
L
W%
ERA
IP
WAR
pWAR
bWAR
WAA
ERA+
Ferrell
1927
1941
193
128
0.601
4.04
2623.0
57.2
45.1
12.1
35.8
116
Grove
1925
1941
300
141
0.680
3.06
3940.2
97.4
103.7
-6.3
65.7
148
Ruffing
1924
1947
273
225
0.548
3.80
4344.0
63.3
48.6
14.7
29.7
109
Lyons
1923
1946
260
230
0.531
3.67
4161.0
65.2
60.7
4.5
32.5
118
Gomez
1930
1943
189
102
0.649
3.34
2503.0
34.6
39.3
-4.7
14.9
125


Ferrell last appeared on a Hall of Fame ballot in December 2008 when the Veterans Committee voted on players who started their careers prior to 1943.  Ferrell garnered far more support on the '08 Veterans Committee ballot than he ever did in BBWAA voting, picking up exactly half the vote and finishing third highest of the ten nominees.  There is a decent chance Ferrell could be poised for election on the upcoming Pre-Integration Era Committee vote since the two players who finished ahead of him in the '08 vote will not be on the Pre-Integration Era ballot--Joe Gordon was elected on the '08 ballot and Allie Reynolds is now considered a Golden Era Committee candidate since the greater portion of his career came after 1946.  On the BBWAA ballot, the highest vote getting holdover from the previous election was Jack Morris who owns a 3.90 career ERA.  Coincidentally, if either Ferrell or Morris were elected they would have the highest career ERA of any pitcher in Cooperstown.  Though, in contrast to Morris, sabermetrics actually helps Ferrell's Hall of Fame candidacy more than hinders it.  However, unlike the '08 Veterans Committee ballot, the Pre-Integration Era ballot will combine former players with former executives, managers, and umpires such as former New York Yankees owner Jacob Ruppert and Deadball Era umpire Hank O'Day, so increased support for Ferrell is not a given.


Ferrell and Morris compared to HOF pitchers with the highest career ERA


From
To
W
L
W%
ERA
IP
WAR
pWAR
bWAR
WAA
ERA+
Ferrell
1927
1941
193
128
0.601
4.04
2623.0
57.2
45.1
12.1
35.8
116
Morris
1977
1994
254
186
0.577
3.90
3824.0
39.3
39.3
0.0
9.7
105
Ruffing
1924
1947
273
225
0.548
3.80
4344.0
63.3
48.6
14.7
29.7
109
Lyons
1923
1946
260
230
0.531
3.67
4161.0
65.2
60.7
4.5
32.5
118
Haines
1918
1937
210
158
0.571
3.64
3208.2
30.7
33.7
-3.0
7.1
109
Pennock
1912
1934
241
162
0.598
3.60
3571.2
39.8
38.8
1.0
10.5
106
Hoyt
1918
1938
237
182
0.566
3.59
3762.1
46.9
48.4
-1.5
16.6
112


----by John Tuberty


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Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Bill Dahlen: Pre-Integration Era Veterans Committee Hall of Fame Candidate



Bill Dahlen is one of ten candidates eligible for the Pre-Integration Era Hall of Fame vote that will take place during December's Winter Meetings in Nashville.  The Pre-Integration Era Committee votes on candidates who made their biggest contributions to the game between 1871 and 1946.  The Committee is a 16-member panel made up of retired Hall of Famers, major league executives, and veteran media members.  Each member of the panel can vote for up to four of the ten candidates.  A candidate must carry 75% of the vote to be elected.

Bill Dahlen (1870-1950) 2,444G 2,461H 1,590R 84HR 1,234RBI .272BA .358OBP
Career (’91-’11) 70.9WAR 39.4WAA 110OPS+ 139Rfield
Dahlen '09 White Borders Sovereign

Bill Dahlen made his major league debut in 1891 for the Chicago Colts, helmed by player/manager Cap Anson.  Initially Anson split Dahlen between third base, shortstop, and left field.  Dahlen immediately made an impact and finished among the '91 league leaders in several categories including home runs, triples, and runs scored.  Dahlen backed up his impressive rookie season with an excellent sophomore campaign, finishing with a 5.9 WAR, good enough for 5th highest among position players.  In 1894, Dahlen set a major league record when he hit safely in 42 consecutive games.  After his hitting streak ended, Dahlen immediately started another hitting streak which lasted 28 games, giving him hits in an incredible stretch of 70 of 71 games.  However, Dahlen's impressive hitting streak is largely forgotten since "Wee" Willie Keeler would eclipse Dahlen's record three years later.

Dahlen had what was probably his best season in 1896, finishing in the top-5 in several offensive categories including runs scored, doubles, triples, home runs, and Position Player WAR.  In addition to his exploits with the bat, Dahlen, who had been moved permanently to short, was also making his mark with his glove and began putting up double-digit seasons in WAR fielding runs.  Dahlen's impressive '96 campaign also marked the sixth season in a row that the shortstop scored over 100 times.  However, despite Dahlen's superb work with both the bat and glove, Chicago was unable to contend for the NL Pennant and Dahlen was, at times, criticized for both his volatility toward umpires--which led to several poorly timed ejections--as well as his commitment to the team--as others felt his interests in gambling on horse racing diverted too much of his attention away from baseball.  Yet, in spite of Dahlen's troubles in Chicago, perennial Pennant contender Baltimore was very interested in the hot-tempered shortstop's services and prior to the 1899 season, Dahlen was traded to the Baltimore Orioles.

The Orioles had been the 1890's most dominant franchise, winning three straight NL championships from 1894 to 1896, followed by two runner-up finishes in 1897 and 1898.  However, Orioles owner Henry Von der Horst was not satisfied with dwindling attendance in Baltimore, so he bought into the Brooklyn Superbas franchise.  Before the '99 season began he transferred his best players, including Dahlen, from Baltimore to Brooklyn.  Also reassigned from Baltimore to Brooklyn were future Hall of Famers Willie Keeler, Hughie Jennings, and Joe Kelley.  Von der Horst's strategy worked and the Superbas took the '99 NL championship with a 101-win season.  Dahlen performed well in his first season with Brooklyn, finishing among the team's top position players with a 4.4 WAR, despite missing 27 games.  The following season proved less impressive for both Dahlen and his Superbas teammates, nevertheless, Brooklyn won their second straight NL crown.  Dahlen played for the Superbas for three more years and while his offensive numbers were never quite as strong as they were with Chicago, he was able to finish in the top-10 in NL Position Player WAR in both '02 and '03, due in large part to his increasingly strong work at short.  Dahlen helped Brooklyn stay competitive but the team failed to follow up its back-to-back NL titles and after the '03 season, Dahlen was traded across town to the New York Giants.

The '04 Giants were in their second year under fiery manager John McGraw and coming off a 2nd place finish.  The addition of Dahlen helped push the team to the next level and the Giants dominated the NL, winning 106 games and easily taking the division title.  Dahlen himself had an impressive season, finishing 3rd in NL Position Player WAR, 2nd in stolen bases, and leading the NL with 80 RBI.  Due to bad blood between McGraw and American League president Ban Johnson, the Giants chose not to play in the World Series against the AL champion Boston Americans.  New York and Dahlen followed up their excellent '04 season with an equally impressive '05 campaign.  Dahlen finished 6th in NL Position Player WAR while the Giants grabbed their second straight NL title with a 105-win season, faced the AL champion Philadelphia Athletics in the World Series and dominated Connie Mack's White Elephants, winning the best-of-seven Series in just five games.  Two years later, after a poor '07 season, Dahlen was shipped to the lowly Boston Doves.  Despite being the third oldest player in the NL, the 38-year old Dahlen rebounded with a fine season, matching a 1905 career high with 18 WAR fielding runs and finishing 6th in NL Position Player WAR.  The following season, old age finally seemed to get to the better of Dahlen, who played just 69 games for the Doves in what would be his final season as a full-time player as he opted to return to Brooklyn for 1910 as the club's manager.

Dahlen took the helm as manager for a franchise that had fallen on hard times since their 1899 and 1900 Championship days.  In fact, Brooklyn hadn't had a winning season since 1903 and had become accustomed to finishing in the bottom half of the eight-team NL.  Unfortunately, in Dahlen's four years as manager he was unable to change the franchise's fortunes as the team finished either 6th or 7th each year with sub-.500 winning percentages of between .379 and .436.  After the 1913 season, Dahlen was replaced by Wilbert Robinson.  Robinson restored the club to its winning ways, led them to Pennants in 1916 and 1920, was so popular that the club was briefly nicknamed the Robins in honor of him, and was elected to the Hall of Fame in 1945.  Conversely, the most notable thing about Dahlen's managerial career was the large number of ejections, which only seems to reinforce the negative stories about his foul disposition as a player.  Dahlen's unsuccessful four year stint as manager of Brooklyn was his only foray into management at the major league level.

Since 1937, the Veterans Committee and its predecessors, the Centennial and Old Timers Committee have elected over 100 players to the Hall of Fame, yet have never chosen to honor Dahlen.  While he was a very talented player, his volatile on the field temperament and off the field gambling habits may have caused many voters to pass on his candidacy based on character.  Dahlen last appeared on a Hall of Fame ballot in December 2008 when the Veterans Committee voted on players who started their careers prior to 1943.  Despite his strong career, Dahlen was a non-factor on the ballot, picking up less than 25% of the vote.  However, since that election, several sabermetric statistics have come to the forefront as popular ways to evaluate Hall of Fame candidacies.  No statistic does a better job of backing up Dahlen's candidacy than his 70.9 career WAR.  Based on his impressive career WAR, Dahlen should have been elected to the Hall of Fame a long time ago as the mercurial shortstop has a higher career WAR than many Hall of Famers who were voted into Cooperstown by the BBWAA on their first ballot including Reggie Jackson, Tony Gwynn, Eddie Murray, Ernie Banks, and Willie McCovey.  Moreover, Dahlen has more than double the career WAR of several Hall of Famers voted into the Hall by the Veterans Committee including George Kell, Pie Traynor, Jim Bottomley, Bill Mazeroski, and Ray Schalk.

Bill Dahlen's lengthy career started in the high scoring 1890's and stretched well into the pitcher dominated 1900's, a time that is often referred to as the "Deadball Era."  Honus Wagner, Hughie Jennings, Bobby Wallace, and George Davis, each contemporaries of Dahlen's at short, have all been enshrined in the Hall of Fame.  Aside from the dominant Wagner--who was one of the five original Hall of Famers elected by the BBWAA--Dahlen matches up very well in both sabermetric as well as traditional statistics when measured against his peers:


From
To
WAR
dWAR
WAA
Rfield
OPS+





Dahlen
1891
1911
70.9
28.5
39.4
139
110





Davis
1890
1909
79.8
24.1
47.9
146
121





Jennings
1891
1918
39.7
9.0
23.2
60
118





Wallace
1894
1918
71.6
28.7
37.7
133
105





Wagner
1897
1917
126.1
21.3
91.6
85
151



















G
PA
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BA
OBP
SB
BB
Dahlen
2444
10405
1590
2461
413
163
84
1234
0.272
0.358
548
1064
Davis
2372
10178
1545
2665
453
163
73
1440
0.295
0.362
619
874
Jennings
1284
5648
992
1526
232
88
18
840
0.312
0.391
359
347
Wallace
2383
9612
1057
2309
391
143
34
1121
0.268
0.332
201
774
Wagner
2794
11748
1739
3420
643
252
101
1733
0.328
0.391
723
963

And, when you compare his stats to the average Hall of Fame shortstop, Dahlen is on par in traditional stats and stands tall in sabermetric stats:


WAR
dWAR
WAA
Rfield
OPS+
G
R
H
HR
RBI
BA
OBP
Dahlen
70.9
28.5
39.4
139
110
2444
1590
2461
84
1234
0.272
0.358
HOF SS
62.8
22.5
36.1
97
109
2191
1219
2335
102
1036
0.288
0.359

An impressive blend of power, speed, technique, and durability, at the time of his retirement, Dahlen was 13th all-time with 84 home runs, 10th with 548 stolen bases, 1st with 4,856 putouts at short, and 2nd with 2,444 games played.  Strong with the glove and more than adequate with the bat, Dahlen retired with 139 WAR fielding runs and a 110 OPS+, both excellent totals for a shortstop.

Commenting on controversial slugger Dick Allen's Hall of Fame candidacy, Bill James wrote "As time passes, the evaluation of a player comes to rest more and more on his statistics....everything else tends to be forgotten...and eventually the statistics become the central part of the player's image."  While James' quote may have referred to Allen, it just as easily could be applied to Dahlen.  It is likely Dahlen's controversial personality colored many a Hall of Fame voter's opinion of him.  However, with WAR and other sabermetric statistics becoming more and more mainstream, the Pre-Integration Era Committee is likely to reexamine Dahlen's career from not just a character driven and traditional statistical standpoint but also from a sabermetric one as well.

----by John Tuberty